Since DSGE models do not have a closed-form solution, the model should be approximated around the steady state. The question that arises is whether this approximation should be around a deterministic steady state or a stochastic one? This study, usinng a modified new Keynesian model for Iran, considers oil price and production uncertainties. The results indicate that stochastic steady state and higher Taylor approximation can better explain the Iran's economy. Also, the results show that the level of consumption, private investment and GDP in the stochastic steady state is less than the deterministic steady state, while the government consumption and investment in the stochastic state are higher than the deterministic steady state. The impulse response function also show that the response of economic variables to different shocks in the stochastic steady state is less than that of deterministic steady state.

Banking industry, as one of the important financial intermediation industries in Iran’s economy, faces the critical challenge of delayed loans. The existence of delayed loans decreases banks liquidity resources and their lending power. As a result, in recent years, Iranian banks have tired to change their asset portfolio from business loans to interbank loans to confront with their credit risk. Because of the strong relation between banking industry and other economic sectors in Iran, I try to analyze the reaction of macroeconomic variables (such as production and inflation) and banking variables to the shocks of delayed loans. To do so, I use annual statistics of the economic variables between 1981 to 2013 as well as calibration and Bayesian model to extract the value of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) parameters. Results show that the theoretic model is compatible with the economic realities.In the other, words investment and production decrease and inflation increases as delayed loans increase. Alternatively, investment and production increase and inflation decreases by increasing interbank loans.

Goal: In this paper we try to present a version of the standard New Keynesian model with a real labor market for which we notice to the both side of labor market (supply and demand) for defining unemployment...

Although stock market bubbles play an important role in determining stock price and economic fluctuations, their explanation based on fundamental principles of the economy is a challenging task. The purpose of this paper is to identify the factors shaping the price bubbles of the Tehran Stock Exchange according to a Bayesian DSGE model in the real business cycles framework. Stock price bubbles in this model appear endogenously as a positive feedback mechanism that is supported by optimistic beliefs. Based on the obtained results, the sentiment shock was introduced as the most important source of bubbles fluctuations followed by fluctuations in the stock price. This shock reflects households’ beliefs about the relative size of bubbles and is passed to the real economy through credit constraints. This shock also expresses a large part of the fluctuations in output, consumption, and investment. Also, the labor supply shock and the investment-specific technology shock had a dominant role in creating employment and investment fluctuations, respectively.

A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model is developed to study monetary business cycles impacts of volatilities of oil revenue and money supply on macroeconomic variables in Iran. The results show that 0.15 percent deviation from the trend of steady state inflation is explained by changes in oil revenue when it is accompanied by change in money aggregates. However, if such changes in oil revenues are not financed by the central bank, inflation deviates only by 0.1 percent. The results reemphasize the fact that money is neutral in a non-sticky price framework and only affect output and employment by 0.05 and -0.01 percent respectively.

The labor market, as one of the four markets, plays an important role in economic growth and development. So review developments in the labor market because of its close relationship with developments in other sectors is of great importance. This study tries to examine the dynamics of the labor market by adjusting for a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the Iranian economy. After the model was solved, the obtained equations were linearized and their parameters were estimated using the economic data of Iran (2005-2017) by the Bayesian method. Comparing the model's moments with the economic momentum indicates the success of the model in real-world simulation (production, consumption, investment, unemployment, and participation rate). Impulse Response Functions Survey shows that participation rates are consistent with cyclic behavior. On the other hand, in response to shocks (monetary, oil revenues, government expenditures, and public sector employment), increased employment, but the unemployment rate has changed slightly due to the change in the participation rate and the change in the size of the active population, which represents the sustainability of the unemployment rate.

The purpose of this paper is to study the factors affecting Tradable and Non-tradable inflation. Accordingly, Dynamic stochastic General Equilibrium model was used during the period 1991 to 2016. The results of the Impulse Response Functions (IRF) indicate that non-tradable inflation is more responsive as a result of shocks. Monetary shock has had the greatest impact on non-tradable inflation, while Exchange rate and monetary shock have the greatest impact on tradable inflation in terms of initial effect and durability respectively. Based on the results, policy makers' attention to the components of inflation is suggested when economic decisions are made.

Achieving the goals of price stability, sustainable economic growth, and the improvement of many economic variables require coordination between the monetary and financial authorities. In this study, a new modified Keynesian stochastic dynamic equilibrium general equilibrium model is introduced for Iran and in the framework of game theory, optimal policy of fiscal and monetary authorities are derived and estimated using Bayesian approach under a Nash equilibrium game based on the independent decision-making of two players, a Stackelberg game with both fiscal and monetary policy leadership and the co-operative game. The results suggest that the best welfare would happen if the two policymakers cooperate and put more weight on inflation and in general, this approach will have lower losses than other games. Therefore, the model recommends that the two policies pursue bilateral cooperation to achieve the common goal of controlling inflation and maintaining economic stability and to do so, prioritize inflation control. In addition, if monetary and fiscal policy makers do not cooperate, monetary policy leadership is likely to be the second priority, as this would be less harmful to both policy makers.

The formulation of a fiscal policy framework in resource-rich countries with respect to other countries' experiences and local requirements is important in implementation of economic development programs. The evaluation of the effects of oil revenue and productivity shocks on macroeconomic variables is the main purpose of this study, which is addressed within the context of a DSGE model with features such as infrastructure development needs and public investment inefficiencies. Base on RBC model, Results shows that the oil revenue shock increases the consumption, the current and capital spending of the government and reduces the inflation in the short run, although because of the demand side, in medium term push, inflation increase. The results reveal that with an increase in oil revenue the National Development Fund and consequently, the financial resource for concessional facilities to the private sector will be raised. Furthermore, because of the structure of the economy that was largely unproductive and government activity in the economy lead to crowding out effect, the oil revenue investment has a little effect on the growth of the non-oil producing sector. Moreover, a productivity shock in the model has the results that are similar to theoretical expectations.

The main goal in this paper is introducing a DSGE model to evaluate the effects of an energy price shock on macroeconomic variables in Iran. The results indicate deviation in production, labor supply, and inflation from their steady state due to an energy price shock. The most important deviation from optimal levels relates to an 11% deviance in relation to long term investment growth rates. The results further indicate that the lower the share of energy and the higher the share of labor in the production function, the more quickly investment returns to its steady state rate and the less GDP will deviate from optimal levels. In addition, the more energy revenues are neutralized in the national budget, the less production and government expenditure will deviate from their steady state.